The Washington Post (4/7, Wan, Johnson) reports “a leading forecasting model used by the White House to chart the coronavirus pandemic predicted Monday that the United States may need fewer hospital beds, ventilators and other equipment than previously projected and that some states may reach their peak of covid-19 deaths sooner than expected.” Still, state leaders and experts “continued to steel themselves for grim weeks ahead, noting that the revised model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington conflicts with many other models showing higher equipment shortages, deaths and projected peaks.”
CNN (4/7, Azad) reports the influential model “now predicts that fewer people will die and fewer hospital beds will be needed compared to its estimates from last week.” According to CNN, “as of Monday, the model predicted the virus will kill 81,766 people in the United States over the next four months, with just under 141,000 hospital beds being needed. That’s about 12,000 fewer deaths – and 121,000 fewer hospital beds – than the model estimated on Thursday.”
The Hill (4/7, Coleman) reports CDC Director Robert Redfield said that if people continue to follow social distancing guidance then there will be far fewer deaths than previously predicted. During a radio interview, Dr. Redfield said, “What we’re seeing is a large majority of the American public are taking the social distancing recommendations to heart. And I think that’s the direct consequence of why you’re seeing the numbers are going to be much, much, much, much lower than would have been predicted by the models.”
Related Links:
— “America’s most influential coronavirus model just revised its estimates downward. But not every model agrees., “William Wan and Carolyn Y. Johnson, The Washington Post , April 7, 2020